In November, Europe-bound air freight tightened once again. Every year around this time, the most common line in the forwarding world is "any space left?"
Peak-season overbooking is not really an accident. The causes are very consistent:
- Sellers concentrate restocking in Sep–Oct — to hit Black Friday in November and Christmas in December, almost all inventory is squeezed into the same two months;
- Belly capacity is rigid — passenger aircraft bellies are the main source of Europe air capacity, and during peak season high load factors leave the belly even fuller;
- Freighters are chartered out — a month before peak, freighter pallet positions are largely locked up by big accounts.
For sellers, there are really only two things you can do: move your restocking point earlier, and prepare an alternative channel. The former is far more effective than the latter — shipping two weeks earlier is usually a better deal than grabbing an expensive spot at the tail end of peak.
Every August we remind our Europe-line clients: if the target is a big-promotion listing window, goods should ideally be in the warehouse before mid-September, leaving the tail of peak for genuinely unfillable gaps.
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